*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Capacitors; Crude Oil* (2); Resistors; Steel — Hot Rolled* (4); and Steel Products.
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum; Aluminum Products (2); Copper; Corrugate; Crude Oil*; Natural Gas (3); Polypropylene (4); Scrap; Steel — Hot Rolled*; and Steel — Stainless.
Commodities in Short Supply
None.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
FEBRUARY 2020 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
PMI®
Manufacturing expanded in February, as the PMI® registered 50.1 percent, a 0.8-percentage point decrease from the January reading of 50.9 percent. "The PMI® expanded in February, but at a slower rate. Four of the big six industries expanded, at similar rates compared to January. Four of the PMI®'s 10 subindexes recorded expansion, down from six the previous month," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI® above 42.8 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February PMI® indicates growth for the 130th consecutive month in the overall economy, and the second month of growth following five months of contraction in the manufacturing sector. "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for February (50.1 percent) corresponds to a 2.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month | PMI® |
| Month | PMI® |
Feb 2020 | 50.1 |
| Aug 2019 | 48.8 |
Jan 2020 | 50.9 |
| Jul 2019 | 51.3 |
Dec 2019 | 47.8 |
| Jun 2019 | 51.6 |
Nov 2019 | 48.1 |
| May 2019 | 52.3 |
Oct 2019 | 48.5 |
| Apr 2019 | 53.4 |
Sep 2019 | 48.2 |
| Mar 2019 | 54.6 |
Average for 12 months – 50.5 High – 54.6 Low – 47.8 | ||||
New Orders
ISM®'s New Orders Index registered 49.8 percent in February, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points when compared to the 52 percent reported for January. This indicates that new orders contracted after growing in January. "Of the top six industry sectors, four expanded, with Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products expanding respectably. Transportation Equipment and Petroleum & Coal Products continue to be challenged," says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in new orders in February, in the following order: Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting a decline in new orders in February are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment.
New Orders | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
Feb 2020 | 28.8 | 49.1 | 22.0 | +6.8 | 49.8 |
Jan 2020 | 24.8 | 54.4 | 20.8 | +4.0 | 52.0 |
Dec 2019 | 18.6 | 51.2 | 30.2 | -11.6 | 47.6 |
Nov 2019 | 20.5 | 48.3 | 31.2 | -10.7 | 46.8 |
Production
ISM®'s Production Index registered 50.3 percent in February, 4 percentage points lower than the 54.3 percent reported for January, registering two months of growth following five consecutive months of contraction. "Two of six big industry sectors expanded, down from five in the previous month. Production was restricted due to disruptions in the supply chain across multiple industry sectors," says Fiore. An index above 51.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.
The 12 industries reporting growth in production during the month of February — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in February are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.
