Released at SEMICON West 2019, the forecast shows growth in equipment sales resuming in 2020, with an 11.6 percent jump to $58.8 billion. The current forecast reflects recent downward adjustments in capital expenditures and rising market uncertainty due in part to geopolitical tensions.
The SEMI Mid-Year Forecast shows wafer processing equipment sales falling 19.1 percent in 2019 to $42.2 billion. The other front-end segment, consisting of fab facilities equipment, wafer manufacturing, and mask/reticle equipment, is expected to slide 4.2 percent to $2.6 billion this year. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is on track to decline 22.6 percent to $3.1 billion in 2019, while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to decrease 16.4 percent to $4.7 billion this year.
Taiwan will dethrone Korea as the largest equipment market and lead the world with 21.1 percent growth this year, followed by North America with an 8.4 percent uptick. China will maintain the second spot for the second consecutive year, and Korea will fall to third after throttling back capital expenditures. All regions tracked except Taiwan and North America will contract this year.
SEMI forecasts that, in 2020, the equipment market is expected to recover on the strength of memory spending and new projects in China. Equipment sales in Japan will surge 46.4 percent to $9.0 billion. China, Korea, and Taiwan are forecast to remain the top three markets next year, with China rising to the top for the first time. Korea is forecast to become the second largest market at $11.7 billion, while Taiwan is expected to reach $11.5 billion in equipment sales. More upside is likely if the macroeconomy improves and trade tensions subside in 2020.
The Mid-Year Total Equipment Forecast is based on SEMI's industry-recognized World Fab Forecast database and input from equipment manufacturers. Total equipment includes wafer processing, other front end, total test, and assembly and packaging equipment.
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